Egypt’s 2011 Presidential Election: The Mubaraks and the Strategy of Ambiguity

With the May 2011 presidential election fast approaching, it has been difficult for analysts to agree upon the likely winner of the National Democratic Party's (NDP) nomination for president.

by Nancy Elshami

With the May 2011 presidential election fast approaching, Egypt’s ever-fluctuating political scene has made it difficult for analysts to agree upon the likely winner of the National Democratic Party’s (NDP) nomination for president. Currently headed by President Hosni Mubarak, the NDP, which has enjoyed uncontested rule in Egypt since its creation by President Anwar Sadat in 1978, is Egypt’s king-making party and its presidential nominee widely considered to be the de facto election winner. Amidst the current political confusion, some observers believe that the NDP nominee will be President Mubarak’s son, Gamal Mubarak, who appears to have been groomed for president. Others claim that the country’s political climate indicates that the elder Mubarak will run for a sixth term. Still others suggest that Omar Suleiman, the director of Egypt’s national intelligence agency, might be a logical choice for the party. Opinions are varied, but no one can be sure what the NDP will do. And that is exactly the point, as the Mubarak government appears engaged in a deliberate campaign to obscure the likely outcome of the upcoming presidential elections. While some of this may be intended to prevent opposition parties from uniting against the Mubarak regime, this obscurantism may tell a more complicated story, one in which Gamal Mubarak is being groomed to become Egyptian president at some point in the future, but where Hosni Mubarak may ultimately be chosen as the NDP candidate for the 2011 election.