How Understanding the Logic of Iran’s Nuclear Program Is Key for Successful Negotiations

The impasse over the Iranian nuclear program—embedded in the malignant Iran-U.S. relationship—can only be resolved if the nuclear issue is explicitly delinked from regime change.

by Reza Sanati and Mohammad Homayounvash

Though the Iranian nuclear program has been in the headlines for much of the last decade, the past year has witnessed a deluge of contradictory information on the matter in the public domain. While the tone of the latest IAEA report released in November 2011, lent an air of legitimacy to the doom and gloom scenarios associated with the “possible military dimensions” of Tehran’s nuclear efforts, it specifically stated, as had multiple previous reports, that “the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at [Iran’s] nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement”.

While in typical fashion, those advocating for a more militant approach to Iran, seized upon the tenor of the report to push for more stringent sanctions and for preparation of a military option on Iran, others were more skeptical. Robert Kelly, formerly director of the IAEA and a member of the Iraq Action Team, cautioned against the politicization of the report, expressed concern that the evidence in the IAEA report was “sketchy,” and stated that “the way the data has been presented produces a sickly sense of déjà vu” (referring to the Agency’s misgivings on Iraq).

The American approach to the nuclear issue, which attempts to balance varying contradictory currents, has only created more confusion. Washington’s strategy toward Iran involves pursuing the following objectives: building maximum international pressure on Tehran while keeping military action a viable option should sanctions fail, preventing an impatient Israel from launching a unilateral strike on Iran, which would invariably draw in the United States, and sending amorphous signals to Tehran about the possibilities for a peaceful solution.