Iran, Israel, and Nuclear Weapons: An Interview With Professor Trita Parsi

Professor Trita Parsi speaks with Muftah’s Ali Ahmadi Motlagh about the prospects of an Israeli attack on Iran, nuclear proliferation, and U.S. foreign policy.

Ali Ahmadi Motlagh (AM): In the fall of 2010, an article featured on the cover of the Atlantic by Jeffery Goldberg suggested that Israel would attack Iran if the United States failed to do so. What was your reaction to this article and do you agree with Goldberg’s assessments?

Trita Parsi (TP): In my opinion, more than anything else, the Goldberg article represents the opening salvo in a campaign to bring about a U.S.-Iran war at some point down the road. The article appears to have been part of an attempt to create a narrative of failed diplomacy, in which talks with Iran have faltered and sanctions have been ineffective, so as to present only one remaining option as viable – bombing Iran. This narrative may not force Obama to take military action in the very near future, but it will be effective in portraying him as a weak president and likely will be deployed politically to prevent his re-election in 2012. Should that happen, the next Republican president – who will probably support military action against Iran in order to distinguish him or herself from Obama – will find options towards Iran limited upon taking office, with a concomitant increase in the risk of war between the two countries.

My assessment is that the possibility of a war with Iran is currently relatively low, but absent a solution to the U.S.-Iran stand-off, the risks of armed attack will likely increase significantly in two years, particularly if there is a change in the U.S. administration.